The US dollar recorded its largest monthly decline in over two years. The metals market saw overseas markets outperform domestic markets. SHFE nickel fell nearly 2%. Gold prices continued to hit new highs. [Overnight Market]

SMM April 1 News: In the metal market, domestic and overseas metal futures showed mixed performance overnight, with overseas markets slightly outperforming domestic ones. Overseas metal futures generally rose, while domestic base metal futures mostly fell. SHFE nickel led the decline with a 1.99% drop, while SHFE tin was the only gainer, rising 0.49%. Other domestic base metal futures all declined. Overseas base metal futures all rose, with LME tin leading the gains with a 0.91% increase. Although the gains of other metals were relatively small, they all maintained an upward trend. In the ferrous metals series, prices collectively fell overnight. Iron ore temporarily remained flat at 777.5 yuan/mt, while other metals declined. Stainless steel fell 0.56%, rebar dropped 0.85%, and HRC decreased 0.36%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 1.5%, and coke declined 0.47%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 1.38%, hitting a record high of $3,162/oz during the session. COMEX silver increased 0.42%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.13%, reaching a record high of 732.66 yuan/g during the session, while SHFE silver fell 0.39%. As of 8:13 AM on April 1, the overnight closing prices are as follows. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released the national standard "Residential Project Specifications" on March 31, which will take effect on May 1 this year. The standard stipulates that the floor height of new residential buildings should not be less than 3 meters, and elevators should be installed in residential buildings with four or more floors. It also improves the sound insulation performance of walls and floors, increases the clear width of entrance doors and bathroom doors, raises the height of railings in areas like balconies, requires public mobile communication signals to cover public spaces and elevator cars, mandates that air conditioning outdoor units be installed on dedicated platforms, and specifies heating and air conditioning facility requirements for different climate zones. At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office yesterday regarding the 8th Digital China Summit, Wang Yanqing, Director of the Information Technology Development Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that a document to promote the high-quality development of the digital industry will be studied and issued. Wang Yanqing mentioned that the focus will be on key areas such as artificial intelligence and critical software, cultivating a batch of innovation achievement transformation platforms. In the US dollar sector, the US dollar index rose 0.18% overnight but fell 3.14% on a monthly basis, marking the largest decline since November 2022. As tariffs unsettle the global economy, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession from 20% to 35%. Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates three times each, up from the previously expected two times. Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed policymakers' speeches this week may also provide clues on US interest rate trends. In other currencies, the US dollar strengthened against the yen and the euro but is set to record its largest quarterly decline since July 2024, as uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has kept traders mostly on the sidelines, waiting for clarity on US trade policy. The safe-haven yen rose in early trading but later gave up its gains, while gold prices hit a new high as investors avoided risk assets ahead of the US announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Tariffs could stimulate US inflation and weigh on economic growth prospects. The yen fell 0.1% against the US dollar to 149.95 yen, after briefly rising to 148.7 yen during the session. On Friday, the yen rose 0.82% against the US dollar, as US data showed that core inflation in February was higher than expected, exacerbating concerns about stagflation. This quarter, the US dollar fell 4.7% against the yen, marking the largest quarterly decline since July 2024. The euro fell 0.17% to $1.0816 but is set to rise about 4.5% this quarter, the largest quarterly gain since Q3 2022, supported by Germany's fiscal reforms. The pound fell 0.15% to $1.2910 but is set to rise nearly 3% on a monthly basis, the best monthly performance since November 2023. The Canadian dollar fell to C$1.4375 against the US dollar. The Mexican peso fell 0.5% to 20.4566 pesos against the US dollar. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6249 at the end of Monday's session. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday. In terms of data, today will see the release of the final US March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February JOLTs Job Openings, Japan February Unemployment Rate, Japan Q1 Bank of Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, Japan Q1 Bank of Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, Japan Q1 Bank of Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, Japan Q1 Bank of Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook, Eurozone March Core Harmonized CPI YoY - Preliminary Unadjusted, Eurozone February Unemployment Rate, France March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, UK March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Mexico March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Brazil March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the Week Ending March 30, and Australia April Cash Rate. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at an AI conference. It should be noted that on the eve of the Qingming Festival holiday on April 3, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange will have no night session. On April 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges, and domestic futures exchanges will all be closed for one day. The Hong Kong Exchange will also be closed for one day due to the Qingming Festival, with northbound and southbound trading suspended. In the crude oil sector, as of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose more than 2%, with US crude up 2.94% and Brent crude up 2.68%, due to heightened concerns over Russian and Iranian supply. Analysts noted that when the premium of Brent crude over US crude falls below $4/barrel, it becomes less economically viable for energy companies to send ships across the ocean to transport US crude, which will lead to a decline in US exports. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group, stated, "The threat of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian oil by the US is a factor that oil market participants are tracking. However, greater supply risks are emerging." Some analysts believe that the US may not act on the tariff threat, which is currently suppressing oil prices. IG analyst Tony Sycamore said the market believes the US will not follow through. He noted that if tariffs are implemented, trade risks will further escalate, putting pressure on global economic growth and crude oil demand. Additionally, data showed that US crude oil production in January fell by 305,000 barrels per day to 13.15 million barrels per day, the lowest level since February 2024.